Talk:Mystery Box/@comment-70.112.165.2-20150425001508

Alright, I am a long time hardcore gamer, i love the simpsons so started playing this, and I have worked for video game companies. Due to my knowledge of AI, coding, systems, and game design I thought I would help out people on this: 1. People giving percentages seem to be correct overall, after analzying all comments on all the major tsto websites I see a consistency. 2. The reason some people say that the stats don't add up or don't seem to be making sense each time is that you have to remember algorithms, conditions, and variables exist within the code too, not just statistics. 3. Thus, MY understanding without going into percentages and math much: Let's say lard lad donuts is 2% chance, lets call our player Jim. Jim buys three boxes, and gets 3 lard lad donuts in a row. This is due to the "prize behind the curtains" problem in statistics class. Every time you open one, the probability is independent of the other boxes. Thus, even though it seems odd, it still is bound to happen. In saying this, the algorithm seems to be that there are 5 unique items and two or three other premiums. Every time you don't get a premium, a variable or condition is created to raise the percentage of you getting one those next. It seems every fourth you WILL get a premium. If you already have a premium, its place is taken by a donut box, AND the percentage of getting a premium you DON'T have seems to also go up that you will get it. BUT in statistics this does not mean you will, just that you are more likely to get them, hence, 3 lard lads in a row effect. In conclusion, this has made me believe (in my opinion) that they will end this event and go back to old boxes or remove the high probability rates for prizes at the end of the month. Hope this helps.