Talk:Cogwheels/@comment-108.254.120.247-20141226160933/@comment-25021853-20141227233836

I've been trying to get an estimate, it does seem to be somewhere between 1 in 4 and a 1 in 3 chance of an Elf dropping 4 Cogwheels (or a 25-33.33% chance, for those that prefer percentages). I used some Donuts to speed up the Elf Cave sending out Elves and found there is a limit of 40 Elves in a town (I cleared my Town of Elves, then kept speeding up my Elf Cave, once I had 40 Elves roaming around and tried to get 4 more out of my Elf Cave I received a pop-up telling me my Town was overrun with Elves) and I received 12 sets of Cogwheels. I've kept informal count and I have been getting Cogwheels at least 25% of the time when Bottling Elves.

It's tempting to buy Cogwheels to speed up upgrading your Elf Cannon, but if you want to spend Donuts, speeding up your Elf Cave is far better. You not only get at least 4 Cogwheels for every 4 Donuts (the ones in the store cost 2 Donuts per Cogwheel, regardless of how many you buy, it should cost less if you buy in bulk but it doesn't, bad salesmanship) but you also get 4 more Elf-in-Bottles (which will be useful as your Elf Cannon gets upgraded and can fire more Elves and take less time to cook down). You do have to track the Elves down to get the Cogwheels, but that gets easier once you get the Elf Bottler, especially if you have a town full of them.